Bayes vs. Paul the Psychic Octopus

This article examines the famous case of Paul the Octopus, who correctly predicted 12 out of 14 international football match outcomes. It walks through probability calculations, including binomial coefficients and the fallacy of affirming the consequent, to argue why such results do not prove psychic ability. The piece uses statistical reasoning to challenge common misinterpretations of probability, making it a tutorial on Bayesian thinking and hypothesis testing. It is directly related to IT/TECHNOLOGY as it covers statistical inference, data analysis, and critical thinking in probability—core topics in computer science and data science.