Daniel Miessler 10/7/2025

Revisiting the AI Bubble

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The article argues that the current AI investment frenzy constitutes a financial bubble that will crash for many investors, but this is not mutually exclusive with real technological progress. It predicts the achievement of AGI (human knowledge-worker replacement) by 2028 and significant job displacement by 2030, while most AI startups and some traditional companies will fail. The core thesis is that a speculative bubble, transformative AI, and major economic upheaval can all happen simultaneously.

Revisiting the AI Bubble

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