John D. Cook 9/19/2026

Why fitting a logistic is nearly impossible from early data

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Nothing grows exponentially forever. What appears to be an exponential curve often turns out to be some sort of S curve, such as a logistic curve. Suppose you’re collecting data on the left side of the curve. If there’s even a small amount of error in your data, you won’t be able to predict the asymptotic value with any accuracy. But if you have data on both sides of the inflection point, you can

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Why fitting a logistic is nearly impossible from early data

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