Daniel Miessler • 10/19/2025

Why I Think Karpathy is Wrong on the AGI Timeline

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This article disputes Andrej Karpathy's prediction that AGI is 10 years away, based on his definition of an AI performing any economically valuable work. The author proposes a more immediate benchmark: an AI system capable of replacing an average knowledge worker. The core argument is that integrated AI systems with engineering scaffolding, not just raw LLMs, will drive human job replacement in the near term, using examples like Claude Code's rapid improvement in developer assistance.

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#llm limitations #AI Systems #Knowledge Work
Why I Think Karpathy is Wrong on the AGI Timeline

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