How I'm Thinking About the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs

This article discusses the author's perspective on the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs within the broader AI landscape. The author frames AI's total addressable market as 'decision support for Earth,' highlighting trillions of decisions made daily. They view the ultimate AI goal as eliminating the delta between current and ideal states for all entities. The article considers US frontier labs (Google, OpenAI, Anthropic) as a single bet, competing against open source, China, and potential ASI. Three scenarios for the next decade are modeled: US labs dominating, open source winning, or ASI emergence. The author concludes that investing in Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs is likely solid given the early stage and massive opportunity, while acknowledging risks like major incidents leading to government regulation.